Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2014 18:15:38 GMT
Every year just over a dozen teams miss out on May basketball and instead spend their days dreaming of drafting first overall. After months of throwing games to try to better their position their future lies in a bunch of ping pong balls in a case. This year the lottery gods were not kind to one of the most blatant tankers in Indiana as they fell 2 spots, and were kind to the Wizards who actually kept a few decent players on their roster at the end of the season. Now onto to mocking out how the first 13 picks should go.
That vintage 1940s basketball card though.
1. Wizards - George Mikan C 6'10'' 245 21 B C C- B- C+ B
When looking through notes, it became clear to me that Mikan is the best pick here based off of his low bust potential and his high ceiling. Whenever you have a player who likely has the highest floor and the highest ceiling, it's pretty hard not to take him first overall. Mikan is a solid scorer already who blocks shots and can rebound decently enough. He really has no flaws besides needing to bulk up a bit, but that's not really something to worry about. The Wizards already have Darryl Dawkins who looks like he'll be a good big man, which makes this even better as they may have their future twin towers that every team would love to have.
2. Jazz - Bill Russell C 6'10'' 238 21 C+ C- F+ B- A- A
After Mikan, it becomes a bit tricky when deciding who to pick. The Jazz are in their CY so it is likely this pick moves, but in case they are stuck with it they need a player who can produce now while holding enough long-term value that they can trade him during the season if needed. While I'm not a big fan of Russell personally seeing as his shot blocking is questionable and he doesn't have much of an offensive game, he does fill a very big hole for the Jazz seeing as they were a terrible rebounding team this past season. He also is a center so even if his TC were to be bad, he'll still hold value as GMs are usually more lenient with waiting on big men to develop than wings. Best case scenario the Jazz find a proven big to trade him for, but if that is not possible Russell should be able to hold down the power forward spot for them.
3. Raptors - Julius Erving SF 6'6'' 200 21 B- B- C C+ C- A
The Raptors are in a good position seeing as this was their first year tanking so they can anywhere with this pick. With that in mind, I think taking Erving is the smart pick as he could turn into a very good scorer, but he will need some time. The reason he will need time is his less than spectacular 3pt shot, which is rarely a good thing for a wing player. That will take some time to develop and he will need camps in that area to reach his true potential as an elite scorer, but heading into the second year of their five year CY the Raptors have nothing but time.
4. Celtics - Elgin Baylor SF 6'7'' 225 21 B C+ C- C B- B
Unlike the Raptors, the Celtics do not have much time to let a player develop seeing as they are entering CY. They need to draft a NBA ready prospect here who can produce from day one and fill a hole for them. While they do have some solid producing wings in Ben Simmons and Caldwell-Pope, I feel like Baylor can come in an produce better than at least one if not both. I actually am a very big fan of Baylor even if he doesn't give you much defensively. He is already a good scorer and has a decent 3pt shot, and he's not much of an athlete so that B inside looks even better. His best asset is his rebounding ability for a wing player which is always a very nice thing to have. Just like Utah, if the Celtics start slow or can find a more proven player they likely have to deal this pick, so having Baylor who is seemingly bust-proof is also a positive.
5. Kings - John Havlicek SG 6'5 225 21 B- C+ C B- C- A
The last of my personal first tier prospects lands here in Sacramento. Havlicek may end up being better than either Erving or Baylor, but the fact his notes specify him as being outside of the top tier talent leaves me a little bit weary. The reason I feel he could be better is he is a strong player who has a solid offensive game already and he also has the ability to block shots as a SG. Maybe I am overestimating just how good his inside game is, but even if he does turn out to be a step down from Erving and Baylor, it seems clear to me that nobody else is worthy of this pick unless you want to roll the dice on a very raw teenager.
Feel like the sideburns might push him into the top 5.
6. Pacers - John Gianelli C 18 6'10 212 C+ D C- C+ C+ A
The Pacers just can't catch a break after their DC controversy that they claim caused them to slip to the 4th projected pick in the first place. Now they pick 6th and miss out on the top 5 players in the class who look a few steps above anybody else. Seeing as they do have a few more years left to tank, it seems clear to me they will go with the boom or bust 18 year old center if the draft were to play out this way. No other players really seems to have great potential, so rolling the dice on a guy who will hopefully develop the next few years while they continue to tank seems like the smart thing to do.
7. Nets - Dwight Davis PF 21 6'9 241 C+ C+ D+ B- C A
The draft really does become a mess at this point. I really don't understand what the Nets are doing either as they have missed the playoffs two years in a row but besides their PG Johnny Davis, they really have no young talent. It seems clear they need to deal DeRozan so they can draft a bit higher than this next year but they should have done so 2 seasons ago so I doubt they move him now. With that in mind, I think they go with Davis here who is raw, but shows an ability to score and block shots which is always nice to have in a big man. He looks to be a nice project player who gives Brooklyn someone to invest in since they seem unwilling to deal vets for other project players.
8. Wolves - Jerry Lucas C 6'10'' 239 21 B- C- D C B- C
The Timberwolves are another team that seem to be stuck in between competing and rebuilding. They have a better group of veterans than Brooklyn, but still not good enough to be a competitive playoff team. From what I have seen they seem unwilling to deal Stone or Rose and they'll move Lamb's contract right after I deal Cody Zeller for Andre Drummond. Knowing that, they might as well try to make the playoffs they next year or so while they have to deal with Lamb's contract and Rose's last few years of above average play. Luckily for them, Jerry Lucas looks to be the best of both worlds as he can produce now and still has some potential left. His awful post defense will likely scare people off (and his likelihood of being very foul prone puts him below Davis for me), but if he can score at a decent rate and block a few shots while rebounding well, he can be a solid player to pair with Stone (with Stone at C and Lucas at PF).
9. Celtics - Reggie Harding C 7'0'' 249 22 C C C- B C+ B
The Celtics are the first team to draft a second time and there's really only one player left that really makes sense for them. They badly need a defensive minded big man and Harding looks to be just that as blocks and rebounds 'come fairly easy to him'. Moving Randle into the 6th man role would be great if possible and if Harding has a decent TC, it should be possible. With both Baylor and Harding added to the team, the Celtics chances at making CY are looking a lot better even if they are unable to make a deal for an impact veteran for whatever reason.
Likely to demand a trade to Russell's team any time now.
10. Rockets - Sam Jones SF 6'8 198 19 C C C+ C+ C+ A
After holding onto their playoff spot, the Rockets now get to add a top 10 pick to the time courtesy of the Celtics. They could go a few directions here, but I don't really see anybody who can make a huge impact so I think rolling the dice on Sam Jones is worth it here. He is PG eligible which is huge and looks to have great handling along with ability to block shots. His scoring game is nonexistent, but if you give him a few seasons (which Houston is able to do) he could turn into a very solid combo guard/forward or at least develop into a very nice trade chip to help Houston improve at SF or C where they need to desperately.
11. Clippers - LaRue Martin PF 6'9 229 19 C D+ C- C+ C+ A
The Clippers half tried to win and half tried to tank and missed out on the playoffs by 5 games. They have a solid trio at guard and small forward but have no bigs worthy of being a starter. I think they are more in win now mode than tanking, but there's really no win now players left in the draft. The smart pick is to roll the dice on LaRue unless they want to see if Wayne Hightower can be anything more than just a role player. LaRue is extremely raw but with a decent TC he could be well on his way to being a solid starting big man thanks to his shot blocking ability and good strength.
12. Wizards - Kevin Porter PG 6'5 186 20 C C+ B- C D+ A
After adding Mikan first overall, the Wizards pick again near the end of the lotto and are likely going to be looking at one of the PG prospects. I don't think you can go wrong with either Porter or Westphal here, but I went with Porter mostly because his handles are better and he seems to have a more developed inside game. I also sense he has higher potential, but that may just be the scouted potential screwing with me. Nonetheless, just the fact that Westphal likely needs work on his handles is enough to tip the favor to Porter for me.
13. Grizzlies - Tom Heinsohn PF 6'10 233 20 C+ B C- C C+ A
I can't lie, I do not like Heinsohn as a prospect at all. He's basically a guard with good rebounding trying to play power forward. I'm not even sure about trying to move him to SF because his jump shot seems to be pretty bad. He has a solid inside game and a great 3pt shot, but that is really all he brings to the table. You can find players of that caliber in days 4-5 of free agency or even with the leftovers. I just don't see the appeal here, but at this point in the draft I can see taking a chance on him over either drafting a mediocre backup to be such as Hightower, Buse or Nelson, or a PG with turnover concerns in Westphal. You know what you're getting with them most likely, so why not roll the dice and see if Heinsohn can fix his jump shot or become respectable defensively. The Grizzlies have the luxury of having Davis and Drummond locking things down so taking a risk with Heinsohn isn't really that hard to take.
That vintage 1940s basketball card though.
1. Wizards - George Mikan C 6'10'' 245 21 B C C- B- C+ B
When looking through notes, it became clear to me that Mikan is the best pick here based off of his low bust potential and his high ceiling. Whenever you have a player who likely has the highest floor and the highest ceiling, it's pretty hard not to take him first overall. Mikan is a solid scorer already who blocks shots and can rebound decently enough. He really has no flaws besides needing to bulk up a bit, but that's not really something to worry about. The Wizards already have Darryl Dawkins who looks like he'll be a good big man, which makes this even better as they may have their future twin towers that every team would love to have.
2. Jazz - Bill Russell C 6'10'' 238 21 C+ C- F+ B- A- A
After Mikan, it becomes a bit tricky when deciding who to pick. The Jazz are in their CY so it is likely this pick moves, but in case they are stuck with it they need a player who can produce now while holding enough long-term value that they can trade him during the season if needed. While I'm not a big fan of Russell personally seeing as his shot blocking is questionable and he doesn't have much of an offensive game, he does fill a very big hole for the Jazz seeing as they were a terrible rebounding team this past season. He also is a center so even if his TC were to be bad, he'll still hold value as GMs are usually more lenient with waiting on big men to develop than wings. Best case scenario the Jazz find a proven big to trade him for, but if that is not possible Russell should be able to hold down the power forward spot for them.
3. Raptors - Julius Erving SF 6'6'' 200 21 B- B- C C+ C- A
The Raptors are in a good position seeing as this was their first year tanking so they can anywhere with this pick. With that in mind, I think taking Erving is the smart pick as he could turn into a very good scorer, but he will need some time. The reason he will need time is his less than spectacular 3pt shot, which is rarely a good thing for a wing player. That will take some time to develop and he will need camps in that area to reach his true potential as an elite scorer, but heading into the second year of their five year CY the Raptors have nothing but time.
4. Celtics - Elgin Baylor SF 6'7'' 225 21 B C+ C- C B- B
Unlike the Raptors, the Celtics do not have much time to let a player develop seeing as they are entering CY. They need to draft a NBA ready prospect here who can produce from day one and fill a hole for them. While they do have some solid producing wings in Ben Simmons and Caldwell-Pope, I feel like Baylor can come in an produce better than at least one if not both. I actually am a very big fan of Baylor even if he doesn't give you much defensively. He is already a good scorer and has a decent 3pt shot, and he's not much of an athlete so that B inside looks even better. His best asset is his rebounding ability for a wing player which is always a very nice thing to have. Just like Utah, if the Celtics start slow or can find a more proven player they likely have to deal this pick, so having Baylor who is seemingly bust-proof is also a positive.
5. Kings - John Havlicek SG 6'5 225 21 B- C+ C B- C- A
The last of my personal first tier prospects lands here in Sacramento. Havlicek may end up being better than either Erving or Baylor, but the fact his notes specify him as being outside of the top tier talent leaves me a little bit weary. The reason I feel he could be better is he is a strong player who has a solid offensive game already and he also has the ability to block shots as a SG. Maybe I am overestimating just how good his inside game is, but even if he does turn out to be a step down from Erving and Baylor, it seems clear to me that nobody else is worthy of this pick unless you want to roll the dice on a very raw teenager.
Feel like the sideburns might push him into the top 5.
6. Pacers - John Gianelli C 18 6'10 212 C+ D C- C+ C+ A
The Pacers just can't catch a break after their DC controversy that they claim caused them to slip to the 4th projected pick in the first place. Now they pick 6th and miss out on the top 5 players in the class who look a few steps above anybody else. Seeing as they do have a few more years left to tank, it seems clear to me they will go with the boom or bust 18 year old center if the draft were to play out this way. No other players really seems to have great potential, so rolling the dice on a guy who will hopefully develop the next few years while they continue to tank seems like the smart thing to do.
7. Nets - Dwight Davis PF 21 6'9 241 C+ C+ D+ B- C A
The draft really does become a mess at this point. I really don't understand what the Nets are doing either as they have missed the playoffs two years in a row but besides their PG Johnny Davis, they really have no young talent. It seems clear they need to deal DeRozan so they can draft a bit higher than this next year but they should have done so 2 seasons ago so I doubt they move him now. With that in mind, I think they go with Davis here who is raw, but shows an ability to score and block shots which is always nice to have in a big man. He looks to be a nice project player who gives Brooklyn someone to invest in since they seem unwilling to deal vets for other project players.
8. Wolves - Jerry Lucas C 6'10'' 239 21 B- C- D C B- C
The Timberwolves are another team that seem to be stuck in between competing and rebuilding. They have a better group of veterans than Brooklyn, but still not good enough to be a competitive playoff team. From what I have seen they seem unwilling to deal Stone or Rose and they'll move Lamb's contract right after I deal Cody Zeller for Andre Drummond. Knowing that, they might as well try to make the playoffs they next year or so while they have to deal with Lamb's contract and Rose's last few years of above average play. Luckily for them, Jerry Lucas looks to be the best of both worlds as he can produce now and still has some potential left. His awful post defense will likely scare people off (and his likelihood of being very foul prone puts him below Davis for me), but if he can score at a decent rate and block a few shots while rebounding well, he can be a solid player to pair with Stone (with Stone at C and Lucas at PF).
9. Celtics - Reggie Harding C 7'0'' 249 22 C C C- B C+ B
The Celtics are the first team to draft a second time and there's really only one player left that really makes sense for them. They badly need a defensive minded big man and Harding looks to be just that as blocks and rebounds 'come fairly easy to him'. Moving Randle into the 6th man role would be great if possible and if Harding has a decent TC, it should be possible. With both Baylor and Harding added to the team, the Celtics chances at making CY are looking a lot better even if they are unable to make a deal for an impact veteran for whatever reason.
Likely to demand a trade to Russell's team any time now.
10. Rockets - Sam Jones SF 6'8 198 19 C C C+ C+ C+ A
After holding onto their playoff spot, the Rockets now get to add a top 10 pick to the time courtesy of the Celtics. They could go a few directions here, but I don't really see anybody who can make a huge impact so I think rolling the dice on Sam Jones is worth it here. He is PG eligible which is huge and looks to have great handling along with ability to block shots. His scoring game is nonexistent, but if you give him a few seasons (which Houston is able to do) he could turn into a very solid combo guard/forward or at least develop into a very nice trade chip to help Houston improve at SF or C where they need to desperately.
11. Clippers - LaRue Martin PF 6'9 229 19 C D+ C- C+ C+ A
The Clippers half tried to win and half tried to tank and missed out on the playoffs by 5 games. They have a solid trio at guard and small forward but have no bigs worthy of being a starter. I think they are more in win now mode than tanking, but there's really no win now players left in the draft. The smart pick is to roll the dice on LaRue unless they want to see if Wayne Hightower can be anything more than just a role player. LaRue is extremely raw but with a decent TC he could be well on his way to being a solid starting big man thanks to his shot blocking ability and good strength.
12. Wizards - Kevin Porter PG 6'5 186 20 C C+ B- C D+ A
After adding Mikan first overall, the Wizards pick again near the end of the lotto and are likely going to be looking at one of the PG prospects. I don't think you can go wrong with either Porter or Westphal here, but I went with Porter mostly because his handles are better and he seems to have a more developed inside game. I also sense he has higher potential, but that may just be the scouted potential screwing with me. Nonetheless, just the fact that Westphal likely needs work on his handles is enough to tip the favor to Porter for me.
13. Grizzlies - Tom Heinsohn PF 6'10 233 20 C+ B C- C C+ A
I can't lie, I do not like Heinsohn as a prospect at all. He's basically a guard with good rebounding trying to play power forward. I'm not even sure about trying to move him to SF because his jump shot seems to be pretty bad. He has a solid inside game and a great 3pt shot, but that is really all he brings to the table. You can find players of that caliber in days 4-5 of free agency or even with the leftovers. I just don't see the appeal here, but at this point in the draft I can see taking a chance on him over either drafting a mediocre backup to be such as Hightower, Buse or Nelson, or a PG with turnover concerns in Westphal. You know what you're getting with them most likely, so why not roll the dice and see if Heinsohn can fix his jump shot or become respectable defensively. The Grizzlies have the luxury of having Davis and Drummond locking things down so taking a risk with Heinsohn isn't really that hard to take.
